How the 2017 Tech Bubble will blow

By , January 8, 2017 6:03 pm

Exorbitantly overpriced, yes. Some are not even break-even yet, yes.

The 2017 Tech Bubble however differs from the 2000 dot-com Bubble in one thing: Funds are not pressing Unicorns to IPO.

The most successful recent IPO was Facebook. Facebook senior managers knew exactly what the firm should do. The business model has already been there, advertising platform and suppliers have already been there. Whenever the BOD presses, the firm tweaks its ad and generate abnormal revenue while keeping operational expenses incremental.

Facebook post-IPO. This was Goldman Sachs’ game not moms and pops’.

But most other firms are not that lucky. Some retain their business models ‘promising’. Some are solving further-arching physical, geographical, operational, political problems.

Tech firm went bust in 2000 under mercy of the public stock market. In 2017, VC and PE funds are keeping Unicorns private to avoid just that. A PE party to which public mutual funds have yet been invited.

Who are looking forward to IPOs when neither the co-founders nor funds managers are in a hurry? Employees with ESOP under their belts.

The 2000 dot-com burst was public market correction. The 2007 GFC was partially financial engineering. The 2017 game is corporate governance engineering.

IPOs now are more for hatching celebrity plus savior like the kind of Elon Musk than evolutionary.

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