Posts tagged: analyst

The hardest thing to explain to other people about the job of an Equity Analyst and an Equity Trader

By , June 12, 2017 11:27 am

For the Junior Equity Analyst, “I don’t know”.

People demand reason, explanation, narration. Connecting the movement of a public stock to a certain news makes people feel intellectual, and secured that “it makes sense”.

Or does it? There are countless reasons a stock may move. The actual driver with heaviest weight might not be the widely accepted reason, at all.

The more accurate answer to the question “what makes price move?”, sometimes, is “I don’t know”.

But are analysts spared when they reply with “I don’t know”? No.

People would rather be comforted with fabricated stories and heuristic traps.

For the Junior Equity Trader, “Why?”

Why do traders need to know why?

Their main job is entering the right position or, at worst, responding correctly to movements.

When machine trading is in place, may be some will have the time to answer why.

Valuation Revisited – where do we go to the cloud from here?

By , January 13, 2016 12:51 pm

One Hedge Fund Manager trading public whom I highly respect told me Private Equity would prefer Free Cash Flow because PE funds exert more control over the business and financial of the business.

For the PE deals I’ve done I have used models not in the CFA, nor Damodaran, nor Bodie Kane Marcus, nor Fama French, nor Palepu. I went back to the core business model and devise valuations based on its value chain.

Which made sense to the buyout investors I’ve been working with.

Financial investors would rely on FCF though and I agree by all means they should.

Regardless of backstage financial modelling and quant, negotiations are done on multiples. In fact, multiples do not ONLY look at profitability but also embed implied information on risk and growth. I always assumed all analysts understood that but my presumption was proven wrong time to time.

Oh, and about Venture Capital. Mostly multiples on the cloud.

I’ve been working on both industry and academic and, despite what street smarts think of the ivory tower, academic models are not na├»ve. It’s how one tailors and adjusts it to reflect one’s investment thesis.

Being proficient with many peer reviewed and proven valuation models then building models for one’s own from scratch should be the minimum requirement for junior equity analysts.

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